All State-Wide Democratic Candidates Leading New 254 Labs / YouGov Blue Survey Finds
Talarico Leads 51–43 Among Likely Voters
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · press@254labs.io
HOUSTON, Texas — A new 254 Labs poll of Texas statewide races, conducted October 21–26 among 1,000 registered voters, weighted to likely voter targets provided by 254 Labs that include early voting turnout, finds Democrats ahead in all of the statewide contests polled.
Key findings
- Talarico leads Paxton in the Senate race: Talarico leads Paxton 51% to 43%, with 5% undecided.
- Democrats lead the rest of the statewide ticket by narrower margins: Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott 49% to 46% for governor; Vikki Goodwin leads Dan Patrick 48% to 45% for lieutenant governor; Nathan Johnson leads Mayes Middleton 47% to 45% for attorney general; and Jon Rosenthal leads Bo French 47% to 43% for railroad commissioner.
- Independents prefer Talarico nearly 2-to-1 over Paxton: Talarico leads Paxton 60% to 31% among independents, with 5% undecided.
- Talarico enthusiasm advantage: Talarico leads Paxton 57% to 41% among voters who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in November compared to previous elections.
Full crosstabs, including results among oversampled Black and Hispanic likely voters and oversampled regional likely voters, along with issue priorities, are available to 254 Labs subscribers.
Methodology
YouGov Blue interviewed 1,000 Texas registered voters online and via text-to-web from October 21–26, 2026 on behalf of 254 Labs. The sample fielded on quotas according to gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, state geographic region based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2020 Presidential vote, 2022 general election turnout, and approximate 2024 Presidential vote based on available results. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters in Texas. The sample was weighted to likely voter targets provided by 254 Labs, which include the above based on a likely voter frame, as well as a benchmark for early vote turnout as of fielding completion date. The weights range from 0.001 to 6.1 with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 1.1. The margin of error (a 95% confidence interval) is approximately 4.6%. Percentages are rounded. Respondents who said they had already voted were asked how they voted; all others were asked how they plan to vote, with undecided respondents asked which candidate they lean toward, and those responses combined into a total vote or intended vote for each candidate.
254 Labs is a Texas political research and analytics organization, named for Texas’ 254 counties. 254 Labs delivers advanced intelligence on Texas politics to mission-aligned subscribers with stakes in Texas.
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